Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	4h 56m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	4h 05m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 53m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 57m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON