tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:22, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United PNS 16:22 ORD 18:57 39% 22% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 6h 20m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038 5h 38m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 1h 02m Houston IAH 09:44 → ORD 12:38UA 2124 5h 38m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA 2h 04m Washington DCA 11:28 → ORD 12:36AA 808 6h 36m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → ORD 14:27DL 1477 7h 27m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 5h 45m 94% 64%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 15m 93% 54%
UnitedDetails → PNS 11:08 → IAH 13:16UA 4258 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 24m Houston IAH 15:40 → ORD 18:27UA 2775 7h 19m 94% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON