Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5333 at 13:16, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5333 PSA	PNS 13:16	PHL 17:03	17%	10%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	98%	83%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 09:26 → PHL 11:15AA 2565	4h 53m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 03m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 02m	100%	77%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Miami	MIA 11:18 → PHL 14:18AA 1918	7h 18m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 51m	96%	70%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 30m Houston	IAH 12:12 → PHL 16:30UA 2748	8h 30m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 15m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON