tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3899 at 11:05, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3899 Southwest PNS 11:05 STL 13:02 7% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 17m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 49m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 3h 43m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → PNS 11:35 → IAH 13:30UA 4258 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 01m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 6h 07m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → STL 14:01UA 2042 7h 01m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 6h 43m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 44m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 45m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:27 → ATL 15:44DL 1640 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 6h 37m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON