Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 480 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 480 United Flight history →	PSC 04:59	DEN 08:19	9%	6%	0.8%	86%
UA 4721 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 12:08	DEN 15:42	21%	10%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:00 → SLC 08:34DL 1645	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	4h 47m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 08m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	5h 37m	93%	78%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	8h 09m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	7h 25m	95%	69%
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	1h 13m Portland	PDX 18:03 → DEN 21:35AS 1317	4h 36m	91%	67%
Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → DEN 22:40DL 1667	4h 19m	81%	58%
Alaska Details →	PSC 10:28 → SEA 11:44AS 3020 · flown by SkyWest	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 13:16 → DEN 16:52AS 602	5h 24m	100%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PSC 05:02 → PHX 07:42AA 5007 · flown by SkyWest	48m Phoenix	PHX 08:30 → DEN 11:25AA 2602	5h 23m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON