Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5007 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:02	PHX 07:42	12%	6%	0.7%	94%
OO 6244 SkyWest	PSC 15:20	PHX 18:00	22%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Portland	PDX 09:04 → PHX 11:45AS 1350	6h 22m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	5h 55m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:00 → SLC 08:34DL 1645	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 12m	96%	76%
United Details →	PSC 04:59 → DEN 08:19UA 480	1h 38m Denver	DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782	6h 05m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	PSC 06:15 → SEA 07:20AS 2165 · flown by Horizon	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 09:38 → PHX 12:28AS 449	6h 13m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	PSC 10:28 → SEA 11:44AS 3020 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	6h 17m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	7h 57m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 10m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	58m Portland	PDX 17:48 → PHX 20:29AS 723	4h 30m	75%	56%
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 15:05 → PHX 17:57AS 478	5h 01m	59%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON