tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5578 at 13:35, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 13:35 SFO 15:44 39% 15% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 6h 39m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:00 → SLC 08:34DL 1645 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 03m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 31m 100% 68%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 3h 53m 90% 68%
UnitedDetails → PSC 04:59 → DEN 08:19UA 480 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 26m 94% 67%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon 2h 24m Seattle SEA 21:34 → SFO 23:44AS 410 5h 40m 98% 63%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 2h 34m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 52m 98% 63%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 07:02 → LAX 09:42AS 3304 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SFO 14:21AS 309 7h 19m 99% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon 56m Portland PDX 17:46 → SFO 19:39AS 1393 3h 40m 71% 51%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon 50m Seattle SEA 20:00 → SFO 22:09AS 619 4h 05m 68% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON