Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3533 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3533 PSP 06:35 → DEN 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1573 PSP 14:55 → DEN 18:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3533 Southwest	PSP 06:35	DEN 09:49	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	PSP 05:05	DEN 08:22	7%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 5617 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 09:01	DEN 12:19	12%	7%	0.6%	90%
UA 1552 United Flight history →	PSP 16:19	DEN 19:47	25%	15%	1.0%	83%
UA 1843 United Flight history →	PSP 13:30	DEN 16:43	29%	14%	0.8%	76%
WN 1573 Southwest	PSP 14:55	DEN 18:06	33%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON