tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1900 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1900 Southwest PSP 05:30 LAS 06:42 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1277 Southwest PSP 19:50 LAS 21:02 34% 14% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:30 → LAS 10:30UA 1767 5h 25m 96% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Portland PDX 12:36 → LAS 14:51AS 751 7h 35m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 55m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 10:42 → LAS 12:28UA 611 5h 43m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 22:50 → LAS 00:44 +1UA 2400 6h 17m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:01 → DEN 12:19UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:25 → LAS 14:26UA 493 5h 25m 91% 63%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662 6h 25m 99% 62%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:34 → SFO 15:29UA 1430 2h 08m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 5h 53m 92% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest 51m Seattle SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738 6h 32m 61% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON