Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3540 at 09:50, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3540 Southwest	PSP 09:50	OAK 11:28	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON