tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3370 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSP 07:16 PDX 09:48 9% 4% 1.0% 94%
AS 1323 Alaska PSP 14:06 PDX 16:30 15% 4% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 04m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 04m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:01 → DEN 12:19UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 6h 12m 91% 72%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:34 → SFO 15:29UA 1430 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 19:16 → PDX 21:18UA 1227 7h 44m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 29m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 6h 23m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m San Francisco SFO 10:06 → PDX 11:58UA 2624 5h 13m 93% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Seattle SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488 5h 31m 92% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON