Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4921 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day OO 4921 PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2562 PSP 19:13 → PHX 20:39 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4921 SkyWest	PSP 06:32	PHX 07:47	15%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 6406 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 16:57	PHX 18:35	21%	11%	1.1%	85%
OO 9917 SkyWest	PSP 17:52	PHX 19:08	25%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 1884 American Flight history →	PSP 12:51	PHX 14:10	32%	9%	0.8%	73%
AA 2562 American Flight history →	PSP 19:13	PHX 20:39	34%	17%	1.4%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON