Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5631 PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AS 3497 PSP 08:55 → SFO 10:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5631 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 18:27	SFO 20:10	21%	16%	1.2%	64%
UA 2150 United	PSP 11:10	SFO 12:47	22%	12%	0.7%	no record
OO 3462 SkyWest	PSP 13:00	SFO 14:44	23%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 06:45	SFO 08:28	24%	11%	0.6%	60%
UA 1430 United Flight history →	PSP 13:34	SFO 15:29	26%	15%	0.7%	57%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 08:55	SFO 10:40	28%	16%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON