Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4030 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 4030 PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 3852 PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4030 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 06:06	SLC 08:54	7%	5%	0.7%	98%
DL 4042 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 12:23	SLC 15:11	13%	6%	0.9%	94%
DL 3852 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 17:15	SLC 20:00	19%	9%	1.8%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON