tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1283 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1283 Southwest PSP 10:00 SMF 11:41 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3536 Southwest PSP 19:00 SMF 20:41 28% 11% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 5h 17m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 10m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 29m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:34 → SFO 15:29UA 1430 2h 59m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest 59m Los Angeles LAX 09:29 → SMF 11:15UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m 80% 68%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:01 → DEN 12:19UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 6h 09m 91% 64%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585 5h 53m 92% 62%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Seattle SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772 5h 57m 85% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Francisco SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:58UA 1862 3h 31m 73% 46%
AmericanDetails → PSP 19:13 → PHX 20:39AA 2562 49m Phoenix PHX 21:28 → SMF 23:46AA 2146 4h 33m 64% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON