Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1023 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1023 PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2147 PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1023 Delta Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ATL 08:35	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	PVD 17:24	ATL 20:14	18%	6%	0.8%	77%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	PVD 13:27	ATL 16:04	20%	4%	0.7%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON