tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4095 at 11:25, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4095 Southwest PVD 11:25 BNA 13:12 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 39m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 52m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 51m 97% 75%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129 1h 05m New York JFK 08:04 → BNA 09:31B6 273 4h 31m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → PVD 10:10 → CLT 12:25AA 1569 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 15:16 → BNA 15:47AA 3291 6h 37m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 25m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → PVD 10:25 → IAD 12:03UA 4367 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 24m 80% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PVD 13:50 → CLT 16:05AA 1877 50m Charlotte CLT 16:55 → BNA 17:29AA 519 4h 39m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON