Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4714 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4714 PVD 05:45 → BWI 07:23 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3813 PVD 17:25 → BWI 19:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4714 Southwest	PVD 05:45	BWI 07:23	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3179 Southwest	PVD 08:54	BWI 10:31	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 215 Southwest	PVD 10:59	BWI 12:37	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
MX 6201 Breeze	PVD 07:55	BWI 09:49	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3563 Southwest	PVD 12:45	BWI 14:21	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 974 Southwest	PVD 15:10	BWI 16:48	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3813 Southwest	PVD 17:25	BWI 19:02	19%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON