Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4039 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4039 PVD 09:45 → DCA 11:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2641 PVD 15:35 → DCA 17:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4039 Southwest	PVD 09:45	DCA 11:25	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5023 PSA	PVD 09:07	DCA 10:51	10%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 11:57	DCA 13:41	17%	6%	2.0%	71%
OH 5173 PSA	PVD 17:08	DCA 19:04	21%	8%	2.6%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 20:52	DCA 22:47	23%	9%	3.0%	52%
WN 4057 Southwest	PVD 18:15	DCA 19:55	25%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 2641 American	PVD 15:35	DCA 17:14	25%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON