tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1197 at 05:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1197 JetBlue Flight history → PVD 05:45 FLL 08:52 11% 4% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 7h 20m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585 6h 58m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 51m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 17m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 8h 29m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 15m 95% 66%
AmericanDetails → PVD 10:10 → CLT 12:25AA 1569 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → FLL 16:52AA 2397 6h 42m 97% 61%
DeltaDetails → PVD 12:57 → DTW 15:09DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 47m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 6h 03m 82% 61%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129 1h 21m New York JFK 08:20 → FLL 11:19B6 1601 5h 19m 94% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PVD 19:24 → CLT 21:44AA 2338 52m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → FLL 00:47 +1AA 321 5h 23m 68% 46%
AmericanDetails → PVD 13:50 → CLT 16:05AA 1877 53m Charlotte CLT 16:58 → FLL 19:11AA 1364 5h 21m 72% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON