Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:00	JFK 06:59	9%	3%	0.8%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 20m	98%	82%
American Details →	PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:18AA 822	5h 15m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 02m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:57 → DTW 15:09DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	5h 32m	88%	68%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	7h 27m	95%	68%
American Details →	PVD 13:50 → CLT 16:05AA 1877	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	6h 16m	94%	60%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 11:36 → JFK 14:44AA 3225	7h 36m	97%	56%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	2h 21m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 11:13 → JFK 14:15B6 2102	8h 30m	97%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON