Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3567 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3567 PVD 05:10 → MCO 08:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2876 PVD 17:39 → MCO 20:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3567 Southwest	PVD 05:10	MCO 08:12	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 497 Southwest	PVD 20:35	MCO 23:37	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1120 Southwest	PVD 14:35	MCO 17:37	25%	11%	0.9%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:39	MCO 20:44	30%	13%	1.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON