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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 21m Dulles IAD 08:50 → MSP 10:41UA 2604 5h 51m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 30m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671 7h 56m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → PVD 10:10 → CLT 12:25AA 1569 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140 7h 49m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 8h 15m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 9h 11m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → PVD 12:57 → DTW 15:09DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Detroit DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203 5h 15m 88% 68%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 3h 57m Chicago ORD 12:56 → MSP 14:35AA 2448 8h 27m 98% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON