Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 360 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 360 PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:46 → ORD 18:36 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	10%	6%	1.2%	81%
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:47	ORD 11:41	17%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:28	ORD 13:18	21%	9%	0.9%	no record
YX 4798 Republic	PVD 13:30	ORD 15:33	28%	15%	3.0%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	PVD 17:26	ORD 19:28	34%	20%	3.7%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:46	ORD 18:36	41%	26%	3.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON