Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1520 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1520 PVD 06:08 → PHL 07:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5135 PVD 17:27 → PHL 19:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1520 American	PVD 06:08	PHL 07:39	6%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5585 PSA	PVD 07:58	PHL 09:31	11%	4%	1.7%	no record
OH 5608 PSA	PVD 10:47	PHL 12:20	13%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 5189 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:25	PHL 20:58	25%	10%	2.6%	46%
OH 5129 PSA	PVD 15:06	PHL 16:39	25%	10%	1.9%	no record
OH 5135 PSA	PVD 17:27	PHL 19:05	27%	11%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON