Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1515 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1515 Delta Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ATL 08:45	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2479 Delta Flight history →	PWM 14:05	ATL 16:54	27%	5%	0.7%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PWM 05:54 → DCA 07:55AA 2884	3h 13m Washington	DCA 11:08 → ATL 13:18AA 4733 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	99%	87%
United Details →	PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 01m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → ATL 10:14UA 2739	4h 44m	96%	86%
American Details →	PWM 09:54 → LGA 11:36AA 4571 · flown by Republic	2h 23m New York	LGA 13:59 → ATL 16:38AA 4607 · flown by Republic	6h 44m	98%	82%
American Details →	PWM 07:25 → PHL 09:12AA 1536	1h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 11:05 → ATL 13:25AA 1325	6h 00m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	9h 18m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m New York	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	7h 13m	98%	78%
American Details →	PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:36AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → ATL 13:21AA 2910	6h 53m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:12 → LGA 14:44DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor	2h 16m New York	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	7h 12m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON