tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3547 at 13:10, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3547 Southwest PWM 13:10 BNA 15:08 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 16m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 59m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PWM 09:54 → LGA 11:36AA 4571 · flown by Republic 3h 26m New York LGA 15:02 → BNA 16:39AA 4380 · flown by Republic 7h 45m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 6h 48m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 6h 23m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:54 → DCA 07:55AA 2884 52m Washington DCA 08:47 → BNA 10:01AA 5085 · flown by PSA 5h 07m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont 3h 23m Philadelphia PHL 16:03 → BNA 17:15AA 1280 7h 19m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 3h 36m Newark EWR 16:05 → BNA 17:46UA 2454 7h 51m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 55m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 4h 50m 73% 65%
DeltaDetails → PWM 14:05 → ATL 16:54DL 2479 58m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → BNA 18:05DL 758 5h 00m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON