Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2884 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2884 PWM 05:54 → DCA 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 1423 PWM 17:03 → DCA 19:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2884 American Flight history →	PWM 05:54	DCA 07:55	7%	4%	0.8%	62%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PWM 12:35	DCA 14:38	19%	8%	2.1%	81%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	PWM 17:03	DCA 19:04	29%	8%	1.3%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON