Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 287 United Flight history →	PWM 15:37	DEN 18:16	34%	9%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic	2h 59m Dulles	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	8h 35m	100%	91%
American Details →	PWM 07:25 → PHL 09:12AA 1536	2h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 11:23 → DEN 13:25AA 2082	8h 00m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	93%	79%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	7h 14m	91%	75%
American Details →	PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:36AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:23AA 2363	6h 55m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644	7h 52m	95%	69%
United Details →	PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Newark	EWR 14:48 → DEN 17:09UA 2444	8h 14m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58DL 532	6h 38m	81%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PWM 17:12 → ORD 19:02UA 1828	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → DEN 21:59UA 329	6h 47m	69%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON