tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3301 American Flight history → PWM 09:06 DFW 12:19 13% 6% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 16m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 6h 23m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:54 → DCA 07:55AA 2884 2h 02m Washington DCA 09:57 → DFW 12:22AA 795 7h 28m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:25 → PHL 09:12AA 1536 2h 41m Philadelphia PHL 11:53 → DFW 14:32AA 241 8h 07m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 7h 44m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → PWM 09:54 → LGA 11:36AA 4571 · flown by Republic 1h 32m New York LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609 7h 04m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:36AA 4499 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:57 → DFW 12:28AA 1459 7h 00m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont 2h 20m Philadelphia PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402 7h 54m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 3h 01m Newark EWR 15:30 → DFW 18:28UA 1590 8h 33m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PWM 14:05 → ATL 16:54DL 2479 50m Atlanta ATL 17:44 → DFW 19:04DL 1827 5h 59m 67% 44%
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:12 → ORD 19:02UA 1828 48m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 24m 27% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON