tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 426 Delta Flight history → PWM 12:40 DTW 14:40 20% 5% 0.7% 84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → PWM 16:52 DTW 18:54 26% 7% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Dulles IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa 4h 44m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 56m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:36AA 4499 · flown by Republic 1h 06m Chicago ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 5h 37m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 12m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:54 → DCA 07:55AA 2884 1h 27m Washington DCA 09:22 → DTW 11:06AA 5660 · flown by PSA 5h 12m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 1h 38m Newark EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic 5h 12m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic 1h 13m Dulles IAD 22:27 → DTW 00:15 +1UA 2846 4h 59m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:12 → LGA 14:44DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor 2h 16m New York LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999 6h 27m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:12 → ORD 19:02UA 1828 1h 07m Chicago ORD 20:09 → DTW 22:29UA 768 5h 17m 60% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON