Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5811 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 5811 PWM 06:31 → LGA 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2700 PWM 16:39 → LGA 18:17 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5811 Republic	PWM 06:31	LGA 08:13	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 09:54	LGA 11:36	9%	3%	1.2%	81%
YX 5803 Republic	PWM 17:25	LGA 19:07	24%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 2700 American	PWM 16:39	LGA 18:17	33%	12%	0.9%	no record
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 13:12	LGA 14:44	31%	13%	2.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON