tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1766 Delta Flight history → PWM 11:47 MSP 13:49 14% 4% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:30 → IAD 07:14UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 36m Dulles IAD 08:50 → MSP 10:41UA 2604 6h 11m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:25 → PHL 09:12AA 1536 3h 47m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → MSP 14:57AA 3294 8h 32m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 8h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor 3h 51m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 8h 30m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426 1h 40m Detroit DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203 5h 32m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → PWM 14:05 → ATL 16:54DL 2479 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 8h 33m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 1h 38m Newark EWR 14:07 → MSP 16:05UA 424 6h 10m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:12 → LGA 14:44DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m New York LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:00DL 2313 7h 48m 94% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:12 → ORD 19:02UA 1828 55m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 5h 29m 56% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON