Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4499 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 4499 PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:12 → ORD 19:02 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:28	ORD 08:36	7%	3%	1.4%	89%
UA 2170 United	PWM 05:57	ORD 07:57	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 3688 Republic	PWM 07:58	ORD 10:06	10%	4%	1.4%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:37	ORD 13:36	25%	14%	2.4%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:30	ORD 19:36	33%	17%	3.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 2717 American	PWM 14:09	ORD 16:00	38%	17%	3.0%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:12	ORD 19:02	44%	23%	1.4%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON