Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4406 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4406 PWM 05:16 → PHL 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5276 PWM 12:58 → PHL 14:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4406 Republic	PWM 05:16	PHL 07:20	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1536 American Flight history →	PWM 07:25	PHL 09:12	10%	5%	0.8%	92%
OH 5276 PSA	PWM 12:58	PHL 14:46	19%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 6124 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 10:56	PHL 12:40	8%	1%	0.9%	92%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 18:59	PHL 20:44	19%	9%	7.4%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON