Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 11:51, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4019 Envoy	RAP 11:51	PHX 13:26	21%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	6h 58m	97%	81%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	5h 00m	95%	78%
United Details →	RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 1767	1h 34m Denver	DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782	5h 04m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	6h 09m	91%	72%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:48 → PHX 14:28AA 1548	8h 58m	99%	71%
United Details →	RAP 10:23 → DEN 12:02UA 5708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 12m	99%	66%
United Details →	RAP 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 5884 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Denver	DEN 13:28 → PHX 14:25UA 631	6h 25m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	6h 35m	91%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RAP 16:47 → DEN 18:42UA 5947 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Denver	DEN 19:44 → PHX 20:44UA 2655	4h 57m	71%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON