Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 05:30	PHX 07:57	8%	3%	1.2%	99%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 14:37	PHX 17:14	12%	4%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	2h 49m Portland	PDX 09:04 → PHX 11:45AS 1350	6h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 07m	98%	78%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782	6h 04m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon	58m Portland	PDX 17:48 → PHX 20:29AS 723	4h 29m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 02m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	7h 01m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	3h 31m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → PHX 14:50AS 417	7h 35m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	5h 52m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → PHX 14:50AS 417	5h 06m	73%	49%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	53m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	4h 50m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON