Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4808 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4808 RDU 06:20 → BNA 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 421 RDU 20:25 → BNA 21:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4808 Southwest	RDU 06:20	BNA 07:05	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 4762 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:42	BNA 10:36	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 3579 Southwest	RDU 11:25	BNA 12:10	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 16:08	BNA 17:02	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 733 Southwest	RDU 16:35	BNA 17:20	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 421 Southwest	RDU 20:25	BNA 21:11	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:05	BNA 08:51	17%	9%	1.8%	83%
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 18:15	BNA 19:19	23%	12%	1.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON