Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1054 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1054 RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2184 RDU 14:15 → BOS 16:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1054 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:00	BOS 09:02	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1022 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:23	BOS 11:25	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
B6 1484 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:00	BOS 07:59	9%	4%	0.7%	78%
B6 2084 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 11:16	BOS 13:16	15%	7%	0.7%	50%
DL 2393 Delta Flight history →	RDU 20:35	BOS 22:39	22%	8%	0.8%	73%
DL 1075 Delta Flight history →	RDU 16:05	BOS 18:17	23%	7%	0.8%	67%
B6 2384 JetBlue	RDU 17:10	BOS 19:10	27%	12%	1.0%	no record
B6 2184 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:15	BOS 16:15	28%	12%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON