Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3557 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3557 RDU 05:40 → BWI 07:01 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1552 RDU 20:20 → BWI 21:41 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3557 Southwest	RDU 05:40	BWI 07:01	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1183 Southwest	RDU 10:20	BWI 11:42	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3054 Southwest	RDU 13:35	BWI 14:57	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2538 Southwest	RDU 17:41	BWI 19:02	19%	5%	2.4%	no record
WN 1552 Southwest	RDU 20:20	BWI 21:41	21%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON