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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 683 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 683 RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1904 RDU 20:17 → CLT 21:20 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 683 American Flight history → RDU 05:02 CLT 06:05 9% 3% 0.9% 92%
AA 1768 American RDU 11:08 CLT 12:12 18% 4% 1.1% no record
AA 1903 American Flight history → RDU 07:29 CLT 08:24 19% 4% 1.3% 95%worse than usual
AA 1753 American RDU 08:58 CLT 10:01 22% 4% 1.3% no record
AA 2688 American Flight history → RDU 12:42 CLT 13:45 22% 4% 0.8% 85%
AA 1897 American Flight history → RDU 14:49 CLT 15:53 29% 5% 0.9% 82%worse than usual
AA 2704 American Flight history → RDU 16:27 CLT 17:38 31% 6% 0.9% 76%
AA 1894 American Flight history → RDU 18:31 CLT 19:34 42% 8% 1.5% 77%worse than usual
AA 1904 American Flight history → RDU 20:17 CLT 21:20 42% 8% 1.2% 72%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON