Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3168 at 13:25, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3168 Southwest	RDU 13:25	DAL 15:27	17%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	5h 06m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 04m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 05m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:45 → ATL 14:13DL 2052	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 09m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 00m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON