Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3561 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3561 RDU 05:30 → DEN 07:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2288 RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3561 Southwest	RDU 05:30	DEN 07:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 741 United	RDU 08:12	DEN 10:02	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2025 Southwest	RDU 18:20	DEN 20:10	38%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 2288 United Flight history →	RDU 16:22	DEN 18:25	38%	13%	0.9%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	5h 35m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON