Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1088 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1088 RDU 06:00 → DFW 08:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1888 RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1088 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	DFW 08:06	9%	4%	1.2%	90%
AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:47	DFW 10:00	12%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	RDU 11:41	DFW 13:55	16%	5%	1.0%	85%
F9 2343 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:21	DFW 15:30	26%	9%	0.9%	79%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	RDU 14:18	DFW 16:32	26%	7%	1.1%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	RDU 18:43	DFW 20:47	38%	9%	1.5%	76%worse than usual
AA 1888 American Flight history →	RDU 19:26	DFW 21:34	39%	9%	1.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON