Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1525 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 1525 RDU 06:15 → EWR 07:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2816 RDU 18:17 → EWR 19:53 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1525 United Flight history →	RDU 06:15	EWR 07:55	8%	3%	0.9%	93%
UA 1669 United	RDU 09:02	EWR 10:48	10%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 3404 Republic	RDU 11:52	EWR 13:47	12%	5%	2.0%	no record
UA 407 United	RDU 13:52	EWR 15:28	30%	12%	1.1%	no record
UA 1844 United	RDU 14:58	EWR 16:44	32%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 2816 United	RDU 18:17	EWR 19:53	46%	17%	1.4%	no record
DL 5120 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:05	EWR 08:59	11%	4%	3.2%	89%
DL 5273 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:35	EWR 13:23	27%	10%	3.0%	73%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:00	EWR 18:49	42%	21%	9.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON