Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 2625 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day B6 2625 RDU 06:20 → FLL 08:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 2925 RDU 14:00 → FLL 16:09 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2625 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:20	FLL 08:26	16%	4%	0.9%	89%
DL 1038 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:59	FLL 14:05	22%	5%	1.4%	81%
F9 2177 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:31	FLL 12:49	28%	10%	1.7%	70%
WN 4120 Southwest	RDU 18:30	FLL 20:37	29%	12%	1.5%	no record
B6 2925 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:00	FLL 16:09	35%	11%	1.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON