Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3588 Southwest	RDU 12:15	HOU 14:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 50m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 24m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:35 → ATL 17:05DL 2026	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 16m	97%	63%
American Details →	RDU 14:18 → DFW 16:32AA 2693	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:49AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON