Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 12:11, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 12:11	IND 14:03	12%	4%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:04 → IND 09:43DL 3125	4h 33m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022	2h 34m Boston	BOS 13:59 → IND 16:46DL 5627 · flown by Republic	7h 23m	98%	86%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	6h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	5h 28m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	5h 21m	100%	83%
American Details →	RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781	3h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 10:45 → IND 12:55AA 5240 · flown by PSA	7h 03m	98%	83%
United Details →	RDU 06:15 → EWR 07:55UA 1525	1h 57m Newark	EWR 09:52 → IND 12:05UA 3669 · flown by Republic	5h 50m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 18:59 → MSP 20:48DL 2699	52m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674	5h 17m	66%	48%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:04DL 2600	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	3h 58m	52%	39%
American Details →	RDU 18:22 → ORD 19:48AA 2949	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:57 → IND 23:11AA 4740 · flown by Republic	4h 49m	52%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON