Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:02, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2449 Southwest	RDU 06:30	LAS 08:21	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2027 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:06	LAS 09:04	14%	3%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 57m Dulles	IAD 09:08 → LAS 11:20UA 1323	8h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 21m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 39m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 40m	98%	82%
American Details →	RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781	1h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 09:14 → LAS 11:25AA 2280	8h 33m	97%	80%
United Details →	RDU 06:17 → IAH 08:14UA 1383	3h 41m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	9h 56m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 32m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 16:27 → CLT 17:38AA 2704	52m Charlotte	CLT 18:30 → LAS 20:17AA 596	6h 50m	62%	33%
American Details →	RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34AA 1888	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → LAS 23:44AA 624	7h 18m	67%	31%
American Details →	RDU 18:22 → ORD 19:48AA 2949	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → LAS 23:06AA 3323	7h 44m	62%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON