Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:59	LAX 21:16	27%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 2299 American	RDU 18:13	LAX 20:43	33%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	10h 23m	99%	85%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	2h 14m Dulles	IAD 09:25 → LAX 11:38UA 657	8h 38m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	1h 53m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	10h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	1h 58m Orlando	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	8h 49m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 42m	99%	82%
American Details →	RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781	3h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408	10h 54m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 38m	98%	82%
American Details →	RDU 05:15 → JFK 07:12AA 4805 · flown by Republic	1h 48m New York	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1	9h 43m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 12:42 → CLT 13:45AA 2688	48m Charlotte	CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502	6h 48m	67%	47%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:04DL 2600	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	7h 03m	57%	39%
American Details →	RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34AA 1888	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:43 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038	7h 38m	67%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON